Luke Kemp: “Existential Risks: The Biggest Threats to Life as We Know It”




Episode 153
December 4th, 2024

(Conversation recorded on October 22nd, 2024) 

Show Summary

The human system as we know it today – which powers our economies, global supply chains, and social contracts – is a fragile network based on innumerable complex components. Yet we rarely stop to recognize its many vulnerabilities, instead taking for granted that it will continue to securely operate indefinitely. But if we take a more careful look, how can we assess the risks of major catastrophic events that could destroy life as we know it?   

Today, Nate is joined by Luke Kemp, a researcher whose work is focused on existential risks (or X-risks), which encompass threats of human extinction, societal collapse, and dystopian futures. How can we begin to understand the likelihood and gravity of these ruinous events, and what kinds of responses from people and governments could further undermine social cohesion and resilience?

What roles do human biases, hierarchical power structures, and the development of technologies, like artificial intelligence and geoengineering, play in X-risks? How can we collaborate across industries to protect our modern systems through effective risk management strategies? And in what ways do our institutions need to become more inclusive to better democratize decision-making processes, leading to safer futures for humanity?

About Luke Kemp

Luke is a Research Affiliate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) and Darwin College at the University of Cambridge. His research focuses on understanding the history and future of extreme global risk. Luke has advised the WHO and multiple international institutions, and his work has been covered by media outlets such as the BBC, New York Times, and the New Yorker. He holds both a Doctorate in International Relations and a Bachelor of Interdisciplinary Studies with first class honours from the Australian National University (ANU). His first book on the deep history and future of societal collapse (titled Goliath’s Curse) will be published with Penguin in June 2025.

Show Notes & Links to Learn More

PDF Transcript

00:00 - Luke Kemp info + works, Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, Goliath’s Curse

02:25 - Copenhagen Climate Change Conference 2009

02:35 - ‘Six Degrees’ by Mark Lynas

03:07 - Geoengineering + risks

04:30 - IPCC’s concept of risk

04:55 - 2004 Bali Tsunami

07:56 - Future of Humanity Institute

08:04 - Future of Life Institute

08:13 - Stanford Existential Risk Initiative

08:24 - XLab

08:55 - Nick Bostrom, defining existential risks

09:43 - Transhumanism + Techno-Utopianism

10:10 - Bill Plotkin + TGS Episode

11:50 - Zoe Cremer 

12:45 - Statement on AI extinction risks, Dario Amodi (Anthropic) + Sam Altman (OpenAI) + Demis Hassabis (Deep Mind)

13:24 - California Governor blocks AI safety bill

16:40 - Tom Murphy, Do the Math, TGS Episode

16:48 - Survey on personality types

18:55 - Chuck Watson TGS Episode + Risk Homeostasis

19:17 - Recency bias 

19:36 - Cognitive biases affecting the judgement of global risks

19:50 - The tragedy of the uncommons

20:00 - Availability heuristic

21:15 - 80% of people globally want stronger climate action

21:29 - 61% of people oppose the use of lethal autonomous weapons 

21:35 - Majority of people support worldwide elimination of nuclear weapons

22:14 - Schrödinger's cat + Schrodinger’s immigrant

24:48 - The US and Russia possess approx *88% of the world’s nuclear weapons

24:57 - Top ten emitters contribute to *over two thirds of global emissions + more info

25:58 - Economic Superorganism

28:20 - Dark Triad, power corrupts

29:10 - Tragedy of the commons, race to the bottom

29:38 - The great flood + more info

31:20 - Cradles of civilization

31:57 - The Younger Dryas

32:30 - Global sea level is over 400 feet higher today than during the recent glacial period

32:55 - Origins of inequality

33:01 - Origins of states around 3000 BC

33:20 - History of agriculture in Papua New Guinea

34:16 - Calusa kingdom

35:30 - The Bronze Age

37:05 - Nuclear Winter + more info

37:30 - Nuclear famine + more info  

39:24 - Fossil fuel companies using AI to increase extraction

39:36 - US researchers suggest automating nuclear response

39:40 - Dead Hand system in Russia

42:56 - Cascade Institute 

44:45 - Tipping elements + tipping cascades

44:50 - AMOC as a tipping element

46:40 - Stratospheric aerosol injection and global catastrophic risk

48:21 - Divestment movement

48:29 - Don’t Bank on the Bomb

49:28 - Fossil fuel companies knew about climate change predictions in 1980s

49:34 - Novel entities

49:48 - Chemical companies knew about PFAS toxicity in 1970s

52:41 - Countries most at risk of climate disaster + Tuvalu

54:00 - Stratospheric aerosol injecting + termination shock 

57:23 - Corey Bradshaw + TGS Episode, estimated impact of climate change scenarios on extinctions

57:35 - Johan Rockström + TGS Episode, Stefan Rahmstorf + TGS Episode, Leon Simons + TGS Episode

57:55 - Climate endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios

58:15 - 2015 Paris Agreement

1:04:27 - Climate catastrophe: The value of envisioning the worst-case scenarios of climate change

1:07:57 - The stomp reflex

1:08:09 - Information hazards

1:11:50 - Bioengineered pandemics + more info

1:12:21 - The vulnerable world hypothesis

1:15:00 - Jared Diamond estimates 49% chance of collapse by 2050

1:15:04 - The Precipice + Toby Ord predicts 1 in 6 chance of collapse by 2100

1:15:12 - Nick Bostrom and Anders Sandberg predict 19% risk of extinction by 2100 + Nick Bostrom predicts no lower than 25%

1:15:29 - Martin Rees predicts 50% risk of extinction by 2100

1:16:24 - Superforcasters + more info

1:19:50 - Inclusive societies are more resilient

1:20:17 - Peter Peregrine on climate and social change in the Late Antique Little Ice Age + more info

1:22:50 - Diversity improves decision making

1:32:00 - Hippocratic Oath + Oath of Maimonides

1:34:38 - Derek Parfit thought experiment

1:35:52 - Trinity project + more info

Previous
Previous

Jane Muncke: “Shutting Off The Plastic Tap: A Global Treaty To Regulate Petrochemical Pollution?”

Next
Next

Helen Thompson: “Energy Crises & Global Power Shifts: The Struggle for Stability in Israel, Iran, and Beyond”