Net Zero and Other Delusions: What Can't, Won't and Might Happen




Frankly 90
April 4th, 2025

Description

Language is one of humanity’s most unique and powerful tools. We are amazingly good at imagining the pictures created through words - almost to the point that even the most fantastical things can seem real. But how might this extraordinary ability backfire as we try to chart the course for the 21st century?

In this Frankly, Nate explores the limitations of using our imaginations to shape our understanding of what's possible through the use of three categories: what can’t happen, what won’t happen, and what might happen. Nate demonstrates how this framework can be used by going through one example of the many hurdles standing in the way of humanity - as we currently consume today - reaching Net Zero carbon emissions by 2050.

How are today’s societal goals shaped by unrealistic expectations of what’s possible under our current biophysical reality? What ‘bottlenecks’ constrain the possibilities of the future, and how might these change our expectations and preparations for what’s to come? Finally, how can we use the logic of aggregate probability in our own lives to push the initial conditions of the future towards the best likelihoods for all life on Earth?

(Recorded April 1, 2025)

Show Notes

PDF Transcript

00:18 - Vladimir Putin

01:10 - Net Zero Emissions by 2050

02:13 - Thermodynamics

02:48 - Path Dependence

03:28 - Aggregate Probabilities

00:00 - Ceteris Paribus

07:05 - CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage)

07:13 - 40 Billion Tons [of CO2 We Emit]

07:14 - We are growing fossil fuel use twice as fast [by volume] globally as we're growing renewables

08:33 - Financial Overshoot

08:34 - Trump Pulling Out of Support of Ukraine

09:13 - Tariffs

09:31 - Petrodollar Debt-Based System

11:08 - Pete Hegseth, Use of Signal

11:29 - Complexity Risk [in Frankly 89]

11:36 - Artificial Intelligence

11:44 - ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence)

11:47 - Artificial General Intelligence

12:04 - Global Supply Chains

12:23 - Strait of Hormuz

13:01 - Tesla Boycotts

13:37 - Decarbonization

13:40 - Rematerialization

14:22 - Bayesian Inference, Bayesian Probability

14:32 - Conditional Probability

15;55 - D.J. White

15:58 - The Bottlenecks of the 21st Century

18:48 - Ecological Feedback

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