Roger Pielke Jr: "Understanding the Origins of Climate Models"

Episode 81
July 26th, 2023

(Conversation recorded on April 14th, 2023)  

Show Summary

On this episode, Nate is joined by climate and policy scientist Roger Pielke Jr. to discuss the progression of climate research and modeling. The climate activist community is based around projections of what a future might look like given the actions of society - an important tool in the push for urgent climate action. Yet, just like with any other model, the assumptions and parameters can greatly shape the outcomes. How has climate science been shaped by previous models and public perception? How did 2Cº come to be our common climate goal post? Are we anticipating the future within the most likely range of possibilities, or are we polarizing ourselves to the extremes of climate denial and climate doom?

About Roger Pielke Jr.

Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. is a professor at the University of Colorado where he teaches environmental science and policy. A lifetime scholar with many interests, Roger researches and writes on subjects from understanding the politicization of science to decision making under uncertainty to policy education for scientists in areas such as climate change, disaster mitigation, and world trade. His most recent book, The Rightful Place of Science: Disasters and Climate Change takes a deeper look at the IPCC and climate science and how it is being interpreted in the media. Roger also oversees a popular Substack - The Honest Broker - where he is experimenting with a new approach to research, writing and public engagement. Roger holds degrees in mathematics, public policy and political science, all from the University of Colorado Boulder.

Watch on YouTube

Show Notes & Links to Learn More

00:00 - Roger Pielke Jr. works + info, The Honest Broker, A Primer on Implausible Climate Scenarios

01:47 - IPCC Climate Scenarios

02:01 - Available fossil fuel is over estimated, climate feedbacks are underestimated

06:10 - RCP Scenarios

08:07 - Climate forcing

09:25 - RCP Climate scenarios not evaluated for plausibility or probability

13:05 - Implausibility of RCP 8.5

13:43 - Biden Administration discarded RCP 8.5

15:37 - Uninhabitable Earth

17:15 - Bush administration narrative on Iraq War and effects on credibility

17:42 - Fear and motivation

19:10 - Difference in effects between global average degrees of warming

20:20 - Grand Forks flood

24:21 - Climate Anxiety

24:45 - Population Crisis

24:58 - One Child Policy, Forced Sterilizations 

26:05 - Sensationalized studies are more likely to be published

26:35 - David Wallace-Wells, Greta Thunberg

29:35 - How did 2 degrees get decided as a target 

31:25 - Frankly on Probability and Perception

37:21 - Deaths related to extreme weather events have dropped by 2-3 magnitudes

43:24 - Future population growth estimates

48:35 - WICKED problems

51:26 - Academic Tenure

55:18 - Walter Lippmann

57:34 - If only the US took perfect climate action, it would have minimal effects on the climate

58:30 - US polarization on climate

1:01:27 - Steve Rayner

1:03:05 - Lightbulb war

1:03:59 - Perfluorocarbons

1:06:45 - Emergent phenomenon

1:06:55 - Flood in Bangkok and car supply chain disruptions

1:10:03 - John Dewey

1:11:50 - Factfulness

1:13:50 - UN Announcement that we passed 8 billion people

Previous
Previous

Kevin Anderson: "The Uncomfortable Link between Climate and Equity"

Next
Next

Taimur Ahmad: "Energy Inequality in the Polycrisis"