Erica Thompson: "Models, The Hawkmoth Effect, and the Future"

Episode 55
January 25, 2023

(Conversation recorded on January 2nd, 2023)  

Show Summary

On this episode, Dr. Erica Thompson joins Nate to unpack her recent book Escape From Model Land. Erica explores the pitfalls of conventional science models and the opportunities by which models can augment our imagination and collective understanding. What is a model, and how do our worldviews shape the way they’re made - and conversely, how do they shape our worldviews? How can we rethink and bring creativity into something as scientific as modeling to create maps of the future that are both more accurate and - most importantly - more helpful to planning responses?

About Erica Thompson

Dr Erica Thompson is a Senior Policy Fellow at the LSE Data Science Institute, where she works on a broad programme of theoretical and practical research about mathematical models, their use, interpretation and social context.  She recently authored Escape From Model Land (Basic Books, 2022) which explores the opportunities and challenges of augmenting our imagination about the future with mathematical tools.

Show Notes and Links to learn more:

PDF Transcript

00:35 - Erica Thompson Works + Info + Escape From Model Land

02:45 - Disagreements in past climate models

07:05 - What is a model?

08:39 - Donella Meadows, Limits to Growth, Club of Rome

08:50 - Black Box Model vs a Systems Model

12:01 - Known Unknowns

13:15 - IPCC and their categorizing of confidence intervals

18:26 - The Butterfly Effect, The Hawkmoth Effect

20:41 - Hawk moths (Death’s-head Hawk moth, Poplar Hawk moth)

24:55 - William Nordhaus

26:35 - What would happen at 4 degrees warming

27:40 - Herman Daly + TGS Episode

29:59 - James Hansen, Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Climate Response Time

35:55 - We value identity more than truth

36:45 - Americans’ trust in scientists

40:55 - Risks of Geoengineering

41:55 - Carbon Dioxide removal

43:45 - An infinite supply of clean energy wouldn’t solve the root of the problem

44:40 - IPCC Working Groups

45:40 - Nora Bateson + TGS Podcast + Frankly Episode

45:50 - Gregory Bateson

45:52 - Warm Data

53:14 - Big 5 Personality Traits

54:30 - Kim Stanley Robinson, Ministry for the Future

1:02:08 - Effective Altruism

1:06:48 - Importance of common purpose and erosion of it

1:08:44 - Change in attitude towards climate and environmental issues over the last decade

1:09:30 - Greta Thunberg

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David Sloan Wilson: "Chickens, Cooperation and a Pro-social World"

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Arthur Berman: "Peak Oil - The Hedonic Adjustment"