Daniel Schmachtenberger: “Silicon Dreams and Carbon Nightmares: The Wide Boundary Impacts of AI”
Episode 132
July 17th, 2024
(Conversation recorded on June 27th, 2024)
Show Summary
Artificial intelligence has been advancing at a break-neck pace. Accompanying this is an almost frenzied optimism that AI will fix our most pressing global problems, particularly when it comes to the hype surrounding climate solutions.
In this episode, Daniel Schmachtenberger joins Nate to take a wide-boundary look at the true environmental risks embedded within the current promises of artificial intelligence. He demonstrates that the current trajectory of AI’s impact is headed towards ecological destruction, rather than restoration… an important narrative currently missing from the discourse surrounding AI at large.
What are the environmental implications of a tool with unbound computational capabilities aimed towards goals of relentless growth and extraction? How could artificial intelligence play into the themes of power and greed, intensifying inequalities and accelerating the fragmentation of society? What role could AI play under a different set of values and expectations for the future that are in service to the betterment of life?
We encourage you to explore the resources and research from The Civilization Research Institute on artificial intelligence compiled in this document.
About Daniel Schmachtenberger
Daniel Schmachtenberger is a founding member of The Consilience Project, aimed at improving public sensemaking and dialogue.
The throughline of his interests has to do with ways of improving the health and development of individuals and society, with a virtuous relationship between the two as a goal.
Towards these ends, Daniel has a particular interest in catastrophic and existential risk, with focuses on civilization collapse and institutional decay. His work also includes an analysis of progress narratives, collective action problems, and social organization theories. These themes are all connected through close study of the relevant domains in philosophy and science.Watch on YouTube
Show Notes & Links to Learn More
Civilization Research Institute Resources to Learn more on AI → PDF + Live Document
00:00 - Daniel Schmachtenberger info + Bend Not Break series, Prior episode on Artificial Intelligence, Episode on Naive Progress + Paper on Naive Progress
01:30 - Tristan Harris, TGS Episode
04:47 - Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning
07:22 - AI’s ability to make oil extraction more efficient, 92% of oil companies in contract with AI companies
08:09 - NVIDIA providing chips to big energy, Microsoft contracts with oil companies
09:23 - AI has been used in fission for a long time, but no evidence of huge breakthroughs
11:32 - AI and defense
11:42 - Precision targeting, comprehensive battle planning, intelligence systems and AI
12:08 - AI in law enforcement
12:24 - AI in education, tutors
12:34 - AI and elderly care
12:10 - NVIDIA market cap, top ten market cap companies are in AI
14:10 - AI marketing and lobbying power
14:18 - Where Arguments Come From
16:06 - OpenAI History
16:50 - Concerns about AI automation
17:09 - Acceleration of trivial AI development companies
18:57 - Clip of top AI leaders saying the AI will kill everyone
21:20 - Motivated Reasoning
22:31 - Brain-computer neural interface, Nick Bostrom
22:57 - Ted Chu, Human Purpose and Transhuman Potential: A Cosmic Vision of Our Future Evolution
25:03 - David Pearce, Abolitionist Project
26:26 - Bootloader
27:22 - Nick Land, Ray Kurzweil
29:59 - Zak Stein, TGS Episode
31:44 - Eliezer Yudkowsky
33:14 - ChatGPT on how to wipe out humanity
35:01 - China’s military drill near Taiwan
35:08 - Operation Hellscape
35:48 - Anduril, integrated automated kill webs
38:35 - Ubiquitous Technological Surveillance
38:52 - Wifi routers designed to monitor people’s locations in their homes
40:02 - Internet of Things
40:33 - Planet Labs
40:40 - Increasing spatial recognition from satellites
42:56 - Moore’s Law compared to GPU growth
46:33 - Energy consumption of AI
47:33 - Bloomberg on data center energy consumption
48:50 - Massive data centers that are beyond energy grid capacity
51:17 - Material, water, and land use requirements for data centers
52:16 - Microsoft commitments to be 100% renewable by 2030 fall through because of AI
53:02 - Jevons Paradox
53:10 - Since 1996 we’ve increased efficiency 36% but increased 63% increase in energy use
53:27 - Rebound effect vs Backfire effect
55:51 - Growth in renewables has not hampered growth of fossil fuels
57:02 - Gini Coefficient
57:43 - First paper on climate change published in 1938
58:12 - Trillions of dollars in climate change funding
58:41 - Only dips in fossil fuel use comes from recessions
1:02:35 - Janine Benyus
1:04:18 - Fusion development dates keep getting pushed back
1:05:35 - Humans and microgravity aren’t a good mix
1:08:10 - How AI will simply increase economic activity and it’s subsequent externalities
1:09:27 - 16 trillions dollars per year to internalize the externalized cost of PFAS
1:12:31 - NVIDIA the most profitable company in the world, PwC's Global Artificial Intelligence Study, Elon on Tesla profitability with AI
1:14:25 - "Peak Oil, AI, and the Straw" | Frankly #56
1:17:42 - Treaty preventing arctic drilling
1:20:44 - As people by more organic food, more pesticide is used every year
1:20:48 - As more people eat vegan food every year, total factory farming continues to go up
1:22:39 - Moloch
1:24:31 - How AI could centrally plan the economy
1:31:01 - There are lots of types of AI
1:32:55 - Precautionary Principle
1:44:14 - Energy is 5% of the S&P
1:45:22 - Daniel Schmachtenberger: "A Vision for Betterment" | The Great Simplification 126